The current speculation comes against the backdrop of repeated fissures within the Shiv Sena since the early 1990s. The first major rebellion is traced back to 1991, when Chhagan Bhujbal led a revolt, taking 17 legislators with him to join the Sharad Pawar faction. Since then, the party has witnessed multiple waves of defections that have reshaped Maharashtra’s political landscape.
Key defections include Narayan Rane in 2004, Ganesh Naik in 1999, and Raj Thackeray in 2007, each of whom parted ways with the party under different political circumstances. However, the most significant blow came in 2022, when Eknath Shinde led a large-scale rebellion against the then leadership of Uddhav Thackeray.
On June 21, 2022, the Shinde faction openly rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership. By June 30, 2022, Eknath Shinde had assumed the position of Chief Minister of Maharashtra. At the time of the split, around 40 legislators aligned themselves with the Shinde faction, marking one of the most serious political ruptures in the party’s history.
In February 2023, the Election Commission of India ruled in favor of the Shinde-led faction, recognizing it as the legitimate Shiv Sena. The Commission allotted the party name and the electoral symbol “bow and arrow” to the Shinde camp. At that time, out of a combined strength of 67 Members of the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council, 40 supported the Shinde faction. In Parliament, out of 22 Members of Parliament from the party, 13 aligned with the Shinde group.
In the most recent general election, the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction secured nine Lok Sabha seats, while the Shinde faction won seven seats. Despite this, fresh reports of possible defections within the UBT camp have raised concerns that the Shinde faction could further expand its numerical and political advantage.
Political observers note that continued instability within the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction could have wider implications in Maharashtra politics, particularly ahead of upcoming state and municipal elections, including the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation polls. The party’s electoral base and public image, already impacted by previous splits, may face renewed challenges if further defections materialize.
The latest developments underscore a continuing phase of volatility for Shiv Sena (UBT), as the legacy party struggles to maintain cohesion in the face of recurring internal divisions and shifting political loyalties.
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